Armada of international naval power massing in the Gulf as Israel prepares an Iran strike
5:03 pm - 09/17/2012An armada of US and British naval power is massing in the Persian Gulf in the belief that Israel is considering a pre-emptive strike against Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons programme.
Saturday, September 15, 2012 10:00 PM BST
An armada of U.S. and British naval power is amassing in the Persian Gulf in the belief that Israel is considering a pre-emptive strike against Iran’s covert nuclear weapons program.
Warships, aircraft carriers, minesweepers and submarines from 25 nations are converging on the strategically important Strait of Hormuz in an unprecedented show of force as Israel and Iran move towards the brink of war.
Western leaders are convinced that Iran will retaliate to any attack by attempting to mine or blockade the shipping lane through which around 18 million barrels of oil passes every day; approximately 35 per cent of the world’s petroleum traded by sea.
A blockade would have a catastrophic effect on the fragile economies of Britain, Europe, the United States and Japan, all of which rely heavily on oil and gas supplies from the Gulf.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most congested international waterways. It is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point and is bordered by the Iranian coast to the north and the United Arab Emirates to the south.
In preparation for any pre-emptive or retaliatory action by Iran, warships from more than 25 countries, including the United States, Britain, France, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, will today begin an annual 12-day exercise.
The war games are the largest ever undertaken in the region.
They will practise tactics in how to breach an Iranian blockade of the strait and the force will also undertake counter-mining drills.
The multi-national naval force in the Gulf includes three U.S. Nimitz class carrier groups, each of which has more aircraft than the entire complement of the Iranian air force.
The carriers are supported by at least 12 warships, including ballistic missile cruisers, frigates, destroyers, and assault ships carrying thousands of U.S. Marines and special forces.
The British component consists of four British minesweepers and the Royal Fleet Auxiliary Cardigan Bay, a logistics vessel. HMS Diamond, a brand-new £1billion Type 45 destroyer, one of the most powerful ships in the British fleet, will also be operating in the region.
In addition, commanders will also simulate destroying Iranian combat jets, ships, and coastal missile batteries.
In the event of war, the main threat to the multi-national force will come from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps navy, which is expected to adopt an “access-denial” strategy in the wake of an attack, by directly targeting U.S. warships, attacking merchant shipping, and mining vital maritime chokepoints in the Persian Gulf.
Defense sources say that although Iran’s capability may not be technologically sophisticated, it could deliver a series of lethal blows against British and U.S. ships using mini-subs, fast attack boats, mines, and shore-based anti-ship missile batteries.
Next month, Iran will stage massive military maneuvers of its own, to show that it is prepared to defend its nuclear installations against the threat of aerial bombardment.
The exercise is being showcased as the biggest air defence war game in the Islamic Republic’s history, and will be its most visible response yet to the prospect of an Israeli military strike.
Using surface-to-air missiles, unmanned drones, and state-of-the-art radar, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and air force will combine to test the defenses of 3,600 sensitive locations throughout the country, including oil refineries and uranium enrichment facilities.
Brigadier General Farzad Esmaili, commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya air defence base, told a conference this month that the maneuvers would “identify vulnerabilities, try out new tactics and practise old ones”.
At the same time as the Western maneuvers in the Gulf, the British Response Task Forces Group — which includes the carrier HMS Illustrious, equipped with Apache attack helicopters, along with the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle — will be conducting a naval exercise in the eastern Mediterranean. The task force could easily be diverted to the Gulf region via the Suez Canal within a week of being ordered to do so.
The main naval exercise comes as President Barack Obama is scheduled to meet Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, today to discuss the Iranian crisis.
Many within the Obama administration believe that Israel will launch a pre-emptive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities before the U.S. presidential elections, an act which would signal the failure of one of Washington’s key foreign policy objectives.
Both Downing Street and Washington hope that the show of force will demonstrate to Iran that NATO and the West will not allow President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian leader, to develop a nuclear armory or close Hormuz.
Sir John Sawers, the head of MI6, the Secret Intelligence Service, reportedly met the Israeli prime minister and Ehud Barak, his defense secretary, two weeks ago in an attempt to avert military action against Iran.
But just last week Mr. Netanyahu signaled that time for a negotiated settlement was running out when he said: “The world tells Israel ‘Wait, there’s still time.’ And I say, ‘Wait for what? Wait until when?’”
“Those in the international community who refuse to put red lines before Iran don’t have a moral right to place a red light before Israel.”
The crisis hinges on Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, which Israel believes is designed to build an atomic weapon. Tehran has long argued that the program is for civil use only and says it has no plans to build a nuclear bomb, but that claim has been disputed by the West, with even the head of MI6 stating that the Islamic Republic is on course to develop atomic weapons by 2014.
The Strait of Hormuz has long been disputed territory, with the Iranians claiming control of the region and the entire Persian Gulf.
Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps recently boasted that “any plots of enemies” would be foiled and a heavy price exacted, adding: “We determine the rules of military conflict in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.”
But Leon Panetta, the U.S. defence secretary, warned that Iranian attempts to exercise control over the Strait of Hormuz could be met with force.
He said: “The Iranians need to understand that the United States and the international community are going to hold them directly responsible for any disruption of shipping in that region — by Iran or, for that matter, by its surrogates.”
Mr. Panetta said that the United States was “fully prepared for all contingencies” and added: “We’ve invested in capabilities to ensure that the Iranian attempt to close down shipping in the Gulf is something that we are going to be able to defeat if they make that decision.”
That announcement was supported by Philip Hammond, the Defense Secretary, who added: “We are determined to work as part of the international community effort to ensure freedom of passage in the international waters of the Strait of Hormuz.”
One defense source told The Sunday Telegraph last night: “If it came to war, there would be carnage. The Iranian casualties would be huge but they would be able to inflict severe blows against the U.S. and British forces.
“The Iranian Republican Guard are well versed in asymmetrical warfare and would use swarm attacks to sink or seriously damage ships. This is a conflict nobody wants, but the rhetoric from Israel is unrelenting.”
SOURCE
STAHP
This is bad. This is very very very very very very bad.
D:
How is every single news station not covering this?! This is actually really scary.
I can't help but relate this to Harper severing Canada's diplomatic relations with Iran. Was that a preemptive thing, in case this all goes down?
I don't like this at all, I have a very bad feeling :(
What on God's green earth would make anyone think this is a good idea? Jesus fucking Christ.
this is probably a stupid question, bue is this sort of exercise some done routinely or really something out of the ordinary? I mean, is it a recent decision taken due to the current situation or something that has been planned a while ago?
Ugh. I ... I just don't get it.
(Reuters) - The United States and its allies have launched a major naval exercise in the Gulf that they say shows a global will to keep oil shipping lanes open as Israel and Iran trade threats of war.
Publicly announced in July, the operation, known as IMCMEX-12, focuses on clearing mines that Tehran, or guerrilla groups, might deploy to disrupt tanker traffic, notably in the Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and the Arabian peninsula.
The start of the event, with a symposium for officers from more than 30 navies, came as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told U.S. television viewers on Sunday that Tehran was close to being able to build a nuclear bomb; his words fuelled talk of an Israeli strike, and of Netanyahu pressuring President Barack Obama to back Israel as Obama battles for re-election.
Military officials, diplomats and analysts - as well as Iran itself - all sought to play down the significance of the timing and to stress the defensive and hypothetical aspects of the exercise, which moves on to the water from Thursday with ships from a much smaller number of nations taking part in maneuvers.
However, it was a clearly deliberate demonstration of the determination on the part of a broad coalition of states to counter any attempt Iran might make to disrupt Gulf shipping in response to an Israeli or U.S. strike on its nuclear facilities - a form of retaliation Iran has repeatedly threatened.
"This exercise is about mines and the international effort to clear them," Vice Admiral John Miller, commander of the U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, told officers assembled for the symposium at his fleet headquarters in Bahrain on Monday.
"Represented here are the best of our individual countries' efforts dedicated to securing the global maritime commons."
As well as Britain and France, the main European naval powers, a number of Middle Eastern states are taking part, along with countries from as far apart as Estonia and New Zealand.
"The demining efforts are clearly in preparation for a showdown with Iran," said Hayat Alvi of the U.S. Naval War College, "Presumably in the context of either an Israeli strike targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, or some provocation that leads to an Iranian response in the Persian Gulf region."
U.S. forces in the Gulf include two aircraft carriers on permanent station, though these will not take part in the latest exercise - one of dozens held by the fleet every year. For its part, Iran has said it will hold a major air defense exercise next month, showing its ability to protect nuclear sites.
Western powers are also involved in planning a major naval exercise to be held in the eastern Mediterranean next month.
Edited at 2012-09-18 01:16 am (UTC)
Netanyahu's comments on U.S. television on the potential progress Iran might make over the next few months in enriching uranium towards the point where it would be useable in a weapon were short on detail but stressed the notion that Tehran was on the brink of a major breakthrough which Israel would not accept.
Obama, who has faced criticism from Republican challenger Mitt Romney of being too soft on Iran and too hard on Israel, has stressed a desire to give international economic sanctions and diplomacy time to persuade Tehran to change tack on a nuclear strategy it says is intended only for civilian purposes.
Catherine Ashton, the European Union foreign policy chief who is leading international efforts to persuade Iran to accept checks and limits on its nuclear work, will meet the chief Iranian negotiator Saeed Jalili in Istanbul on Tuesday, officials announced on Monday. The encounter follows a renewed round of discussions begun in May after over year of stalemate.
With strains showing between Israel and Washington, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a powerful ally to both, said on Monday that she believed a peaceful outcome was still possible, despite skepticism from Netanyahu that diplomacy will work.
"Iran is not just a threat to Israel but for the whole world," Merkel told a news conference, in remarks that echo an element of Israel's arguments. "I want a political solution and think we should act together internationally, and I believe that the room for a political solution has not been exhausted."
The heat of the dispute was in evidence in Vienna, where the U.N. nuclear supervisor, the IAEA, held its annual meeting. An Iranian representative drew a link between an explosion which cut power to a uranium enrichment plant last month and a visit by U.N. inspectors. Suggesting "terrorists and saboteurs" may have infiltrated the agency, his comments recalled speculation that Western or Israeli agents have already made covert attacks.
Oil prices were little changed on Monday, though tensions have spooked markets before. Iranian threats to block the waterway through which about 17 million barrels a day sailed in 2011 have grown as U.S. and European sanctions aimed at starving Tehran of funds for its nuclear program have tightened.
But Iranian military officials sounded a relaxed note, reassuring their own public: "This exercise is a defensive exercise and we don't perceive any threats from it," said Mohammad Ali Jafari, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. "We are not conducting exercises in response."
Anthony Skinner of the Maplecroft consultancy said the exercise would, however, remind Iran of Washington's ability to blunt its offensive capabilities: "Iran would likely mine the Strait of Hormuz and possibly deploy suicide bombing skiffs in the event of air strikes against its nuclear facilities.
"Washington wants to show that it's prepared for such an eventuality," Skinner said. "I see this exercise as part of broader initiative to sustain the pressure on Iran. Giving sanctions the time to work is clearly the preferred option for the Obama administration, at least in the medium term."
Meir Javedanfar, an Iranian expert in Israel, suggested that publicity for the exercise was primarily aimed at American voters and the Israeli leadership: "This military exercise is Obama's way of showing U.S. voters, especially Israel's supporters in the U.S., and Netanyahu that when it comes to Iran, he is not only relying on talks," he said. "To show that when he said 'I have Israel's back' in March ... he meant it."
In a statement, the U.S. navy recalled what it described as terrorist attacks in 2002 on the French tanker Limburg off Yemen and in 2010 on the Japanese M. Star in the Strait of Hormuz, as examples of the "hypothetical threat" to shipping in the area of the exercise, which would take place at sea in three areas, two in the Gulf and one at the mouth of the Red Sea.
Western navies have also been practicing in recent years how to respond to small, fast boats, possibly crewed by suicidal assailants, which could target larger ships in the way the U.S. destroyer Cole was damaged in a Yemeni port 12 years ago.
Wake me up when humanity stops doing this stupid shit.
This is just the Telegraph being dramatic to sell papers, and it's very much a domestic powerplay for the benefit of US electorate (with a sideline in reassuring Israel that the election won't change anything). Iran's not rattling any sabres in response just yet.