ONTD Political

Jessica Goral had pretty much made up her mind two weeks ago: she was going to vote for Barack Obama. Then John McCain picked Sarah Palin as his running-mate.

“She empowers a lot of women,” said Mrs Goral, a mother of two in Macomb County – a national bellwether in the battleground state of Michigan and an area rich in white, working-class swing voters who will play an important role in deciding the election in November.

“I like that she’s a brand new mother, and that she has the courage to stand behind her pregnant daughter. She relates to working women. For all of us who have children at home but have to go to work every day – she has given us a sense that we can still do it and can be an excellent mum,” she said. “Sarah Palin is a role model. She’s made me more likely to vote Republican.”

If Mr Obama should be in any doubt how gravely the vice-presidential nomination of the Governor of Alaska has imperilled his White House ambitions, then a day spent in Macomb County will make this clear: white women who voted for John Kerry in 2004 are suddenly deserting the Democratic Party.

This is Mount Clemens, in the heart of Macomb County, where the pollster Stan Greenberg first identified the phenomenon of the Reagan Democrats – the working-class, socially conservative, traditionally Democratic whites who deserted the party for Ronald Reagan in 1980. It is fair to say that this critical swing group now has a new name: Palin Democrats.

The Times spoke to dozens of women here – perhaps the key demographic in this election – in an area that is 88 per cent white, has one of the highest unemployment and home repossession rates in the country, and will play a big role in determining who wins Michigan in November. It is a crucial swing state that no Republican has won since 1988 but where Mr Obama is particularly vulnerable. Nearly all said that they were still undecided. Yet the disturbing fact for Mr Obama was how many said that they had been leaning towards him – until Mrs Palin entered the race. It lends new credence to a poll last week that showed white women fleeing from Mr Obama to Mr McCain.

Katherine Herman, 45, is a lifelong Democrat who has never voted for a Republican. Until now. “I have a friend who’s a Democrat, and like me, it’s Sarah Palin that’s caused her to lean in favour of McCain. Palin is tenacious. She’s sure of herself and would make good decisions for all Americans,” she said.

Stephanie Parker, 23, a single mother puffing on a Marlboro menthol cigarette in Main Street, Mount Clemens, voted for Mr Kerry and had been drawn to Mr Obama. “Palin’s made a big difference. I think she’ll do us great. What she stands for is fantastic,” she said. What does she stand for? “I couldn’t tell really. But I love her.”

Jennifer Zvara, 22, another single mother who voted for John Kerry, said: “I’m undecided but leaning more towards McCain because of Palin. It’s a women thing. She’s one of us. This race is about the running-mates – it’s not about Obama any more.”

Aides to Mr Obama have argued that the conservatism of Mrs Palin – her opposition to abortion even in cases of rape and incest – will alienate women. Yet the women who spoke toThe Timessaid that while they were concerned about those views they were willing to overlook them.

In recent presidential races pollsters have striven to name the preeminent voter swing group that they believe will decide the election. White women were always considered pivotal in a close election.

In 1996 it was “soccer moms” whom Bill Clinton targeted. In 2004 it was “security moms” who helped President Bush to win reelection. This year the group watched most closely by pollsters has been named the “Wal-Mart moms” – the white every-woman, juggling work and children, who wants a Democrat in the White House but is not yet sold on Mr Obama. In Mrs Palin they have found a soulmate.

Tammy Pore, 31, leaving Wal-Mart with one of her two children, said that she had decided to vote for Mr Obama. She said that she was leaning towards Mr McCain. “I think Sarah Palin is a great choice. There are some of us who have certain worries about Obama’s faith. I wouldn’t say he’s not a Christian – but maybe he just has a different belief.” Another young mother, who did not want to be named, simply said: “I’m a Republican. But I would have voted for Obama if he’d picked Hillary. We really want a woman in the White House.”

Last month, before Mrs Palin was picked by Mr McCain, Mr Greenberg returned to Macomb County. He conducted six focus groups. “Obama has yet to close the deal with white, working-class voters who normally vote Democrat,” Mr Greenberg said. Macomb’s Reagan Democrats were “refusing to dismiss their worst fears – that he does not love America or even might harbour a secret agenda”. Mrs Palin is giving them all the more reason to reject Mr Obama.
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