Breaking Down the Caucus Goers - By Gender (Exit Poll) (see source for table of results)
Make no mistake, Sanders had a great showing in Iowa. He out performed the last few polls, and was breathing down the neck of Clinton late in the evening. That said, the breakdown of Sanders caucus supporters shows some troubling trends for his campaign:
Right off the bat, we see a big issue: while Sanders won the male vote, he lost the female vote. Females accounted for 57%
of voters - the polls suggest that Clinton had an actual popular vote count of 49.13% in that regard to Sanders 45.44%.
Important, is the implication going forward - females outvote males in elections, and it was the female vote that broke decisively for Obama in both 2008 and 2012.By Age (Exit Poll) (see source for table)
No, that's not a typo. Sanders really did have over 80% of the 17-29 group.
Clearly, Sanders supporters skew towards the youth - and it is a testament to his campaign that he got so many of them out there, and so decisively on his side.
On the flip side, the 17-39 crowd accounted for only 32% of the vote. The 40-64 group alone accounted for 40% of the vote, and the 65+ group broke decisively for Clinton.
Why is this an issue? Well, historically, the senior vote has always been the most reliable voting group of any demographic. In addition, the Democrats have historically struggled with senior groups. Florida - a pivotal swing state - has historically had a huge population of seniors that have often voted GOP. In 2012, Obama carried Florida - but by less than a percent. As you can imagine, Sanders unpopularity with seniors within his own party caucus is a potential problem down the road.( Under the cut, poll results by income, political philosophy, party affiliation, political experience, and education level...Collapse )Analysis by GTFErinyes on Reddit