A list of ultra-stupid moves and counter moves destroying the economies and consumers world-wide collected and remarked upon by Traderrog
Health Care: Ignoring and insulting elderly voter’s at the most recent town hall meetings on health care discussions created anger and confusion. Sharp observers who have taken the time to read proposals see nothing but disaster. The worst features are: (1) Robbing 500mm from Medicare in a triage move to lessen care for the oldest based upon cost and, (2) Moving to a single payer system destroying 85% of the coverage for recipients now being covered by private insurance (3) Adding 50mm new participants from the lowest income sector (non-payers) overwhelming the system with demand as there are not enough medical staff to cope. Our forecast says the graybeards will vote out many of those up for re-election in fall 2010 in a massive backlash. Further, this fall, when the bill comes up for a vote, the markets will have crashed and this bill could be buried for good. This is the reason those in charge are pushing so hard to pass it quickly. After September 15th it’s too late. Rationing health care using bureaurats to decide who lives and who dies will not fly with voters-consumers.
Consumers Are Broke: Since consumers earn the money and pay the taxes to support all governments, when they are broken, their ability to support the bureaurats is broken, too. They can be overly taxed and abused to most any extent but when they are jobless and their employers are shut-down so are revenue streams to all governments. Central governments can last longer as they manufacture currencies and bonds out of thin air not having to balance budgets. On the more local level of states, counties, cities, towns and villages, by their law’s they have to balance budgets and they simply cannot. Obviously some are in much worst shape than others like California, Nevada, and certain cities, but a tidal wave of failures is sweeping America drowning employment with remarkable and horrible speed. Those with cash and credit are saving for rainy days ahead. Credit is going nowhere as banks are afraid to lend and consumers-businesses (qualified) are afraid to borrow. Hunkering down and saving is the plan for most in an effort to survive. This is killing any growth and promoting further deterioration.
Cap ‘N’ Trade: Is another flagrantly stupid idea that increases the cost of energy, particularly electricity. It off-loads alleged carbon footprints via trading from one user to another creating a nightmare of abuses in the middle. The ignorant congress instead of dreaming-up new economy wrecking ideas to milk the system and steal more from the Sheeple should bend to the wishes of voting constituents and use some common sense. They will not and voters will respond at the polls. We expect Cap ‘N’ Trade to fail.
Global Warming: Our experienced Northern weather Advisor told me there are signs we enter the next ice age in 2040. The Midwestern US this summer has been extraordinarily cool. Other normally cooler places are warmer. Studies allegedly proving the onset of global warming are fraught with mistakes. Recently, we saw a report showing the Warming Idiots who wrote about this stuff have “missed” seeing an iceberg the size of Greenland (Brilliant!) in their computations. This is another scam to make money and buy votes while getting full control of the Sheeple. Expect much more ridiculous non-sense. Millionaire politicians like Al Gore shall remain busy seeking more scams to promote their phony agendas.
Corn Ethanol: Well, this one sure worked out well didn’t it? The corn-to-ethanol plants are going bankrupt, and that fuel has created untold amounts of damage in filling station pumps and certain cars as it wasted precious corn reserves and billions of gallons of precious clean water. Corn ethanol is just another government boondoggle gone wrong. Further, the economics do not work and it must be taxpayer subsidized to balance production budgets. Other water problems in California are destroying farms equal in size to the state of Rhode Island. This in an effort to save a non-descript 2 inch minnow fish. Millions of dollars of lost wages and grower damage ensue.
US Energy Drilling Denied: Shortages of energy; specifically oil and gas would be alleviated but not eliminated if offshore drilling and some banned onshore efforts were permitted. California could probably solve its budget crisis (at least temporarily until it wasted more new income) by allowing nearby ocean drilling for oil and gas. The greens are in charge so the state goes down the economic tubes with a huge smash. Similar opportunities exist for New Jersey, Florida and some other coastal states. We say no offshore drilling will be allowed until oil and gas goes critical. Then it takes ten more years to explore, drill and produce new reserves.
TARP Funding: Has been spent to repair bank balance sheets not lend for growth. Global investment banks lost trillions with reckless lending (illegal?) practices and then got billions more in free TARP cash to replenish balance sheets. The taxpayers were hit twice. (1) First they are stuck with the aftermath of the messes from the reckless lending and, (2) They got robbed again with the TARP takings. This is why former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson insisted on bullet-proof legal documents in advance of handing out the money. Mr. Paulson is a crook acting as a shill for big bankers and most know it for sure. Some are now investigating.
Buying Way Out Of Deflation-Depression: Historically, no nation has been able to buy its way out of a depression. A critical assessment of FDR’s performance in the 1930’s proves this beyond a doubt. Further, others have written in depth about this problem-alleged solution and agree. The current administration continues down the same tried and true policy path to failure, replicating the 1930’s all over again.
Government Motors: With years to go in a depression and little or no consumer buying power do you really think GM also known as Government Motors can survive and sell cars? Will this work under the leadership thumb of government bureaurats? We say they sink into oblivion with Chrysler. We are hoping Ford can make it but they must sell cars to enable a viable company to continue. Who will buy the cars? Competition is fierce and competitors have the best products and no major overhang of debt as Ford does.
Tax Increases: We see new tax increases flying in from all sides. The over-spending government entities thinking good times roll forever spent the higher tax revenues from the inflated good times (cheap interest rates and bad lending) and now cannot cope with drastically lower tax payments from broken consumers and corporations.
Falling Tax Receipts: We’ve seen revenue reports saying tax payments fell 22% to 34% depending upon whether the discussion is federal taxes or others. California is a leading example with Jefferson County (City of Birmingham) Alabama being another. This cascades through America being more visible-critical in July, 2010.
California & States’ Bailouts: Are going critical. As states’ cascade into failures, they are reaching the tipping point. The president has said he will not help them. State employee lay-offs have begun in earnest as funds dry-up and the first waves of non-essential and some essential services are denied. Jefferson County Alabama including the large southern city of Birmingham are now at great risk. Authorities are expecting to call in the National Guard as fire and police are laid-off with no pay. Now, California is saying they will pay back their IOU’s due this fall. Where did the money come from all of a sudden?
Off-Shoring Manufacturing: Manufacturing, mostly shifted to Asia has contributed to 33% of USA manufacturing sitting idle. We see more dead and dying companies with jobless employees in the millions.
Social Help Too Slow: Food stamps are now provided for over 34mm Americans. As fast as the government is trying to provide help, the needy are demanding ever more. Food stamps are only one part of the equation. The next one is soaring utilities with consumers freezing to death this winter. There is also a chance of them suffering a killer heat wave yet this summer as when Chicago had over 700 heat-related deaths some years ago. It can happen again when the elderly cannot afford to run air conditioners.
Stock Market Is Not The Economy: The stock market has turned into giant crap game, for the most part manipulated by a few major hedge funds and global banks for their own ill-gotten gains and amusement. This fall, the Sheeple will once again be left holding an empty bag after the crash. Prior to, the pros will be out with their profits. Meanwhile, the economy must run on genuine credit and production. Both are sorely lacking.
Bonds & US Dollar: Are critical to America’s credit and potential economic resurrection. If the dollar crashes (and it will by at least 50%) most of the world is pegged to that currency and will collapse. Monetization of bonds and dollars (creation of credit out of thin air) is catching up to the administration. Somewhere ahead the buyers will stop buying valueless paper and then we sink into a larger collapse. The first stages could come this fall and one top analyst forecasts a bank run later this August when a new larger list of US bank failures is posted.
Other Currencies: Have been proposed by Russia, and Middle Eastern oil producers. So far this has not worked as the US Dollar pool and bond markets are so incredibly large relative to other currencies. Escape from the clutches of American credit instruments and currency has failed. Hints of moving to the gold standard by several of these nations are interesting. But, we cannot understand how it can help despite, perhaps, having some very long term merit with no immediate healing results. Debts must be marked down to reality first and consumers need jobs and realistically priced house sales prices. This cannot happen for years.
Asian Stock Markets: And their economies are running on fumes. Shorting the Shanghai Index SSEC might be a good trade with stocks up nearly 80% this year and the PE’s reportedly running at 35, which is outrageous.
Unemployment in Europe: Is officially matching the USA with various jobless numbers between 9-10%. As we’ve reported before, if you double the official jobless stats you are closer to the real truth. Spain is very bad and the UK and Ireland are next in line with more of Eastern Europe going idle at a rapid clip.
Higher US Debt Limits: Are being considered, increasing them to new highs as requested by Geitner. These efforts are futile and merely add to the immensity of both current and forthcoming destruction.
Financials crashed in fall 2008 with Lehman. Recovery began with TARP May, 2009: During this month of August we have more of a dead cat bounce ahead with a big smash in Mid-September. While precious metals and their shares are off this August 17, 2009, for the intermediate term (next 90 days) the trend reverses and moves to rallies.
Keep in mind, if you own paid for stuff it will most likely remain in your hands; not in somebody else’s. That includes gold and silver.
Do not get tangled-up in daily noise. Keep studying the larger view and buy precious metals after each profit-taking correction. Headwinds are building into an economic hurricane. Take care of business right now. My dire fall prediction might surprise us and arrive earlier. Time is short.
Personally, I can see unbelievable opportunities to trade that we would never see again for many years. Turn these problems into opportunities. Those on the right side of the trade might get rich. Those on the other side are just victims. Stay Alert. – Traderrog
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The Jay & Rog Blog at webeatthestreet.com